Horizon scan

Horizon scanning is a practice used to systematically examine potential opportunities and likely future developments, including those that challenge current thinking. Horizon scanning explores new and unexpected trends and possibilities.

The activities in this guideline will provide practitioners with an understanding of the business trends that may influence the strategic direction of the organisation or transform the way in which future services could be provided.

Audience

A practitioner in the context of this guideline can include one or more of the following roles:

• Digital and ICT strategic planners
• Agency and service strategic planners
• Workforce planners
• Enterprise architects
• Business analysts
• Information managers.

This guideline focuses on horizon scanning for trends that could impact service delivery in relation to business, industry and society. The approaches outlined can be applied to investigate opportunities across all these elements.

Before you begin a horizon scan, ensure you visit Digital and technology trends for full details on how to recognise and document potential technology disruptions.

Gartner Inc (2017) identifies the four key elements of digital disruption as:

• Business—market, development, pricing and delivery
• Industry—processes, standards, methods and customers
• Society—culture, habits and movements
• Technology—invention, design and usage.

Horizon scanning includes a search process aimed at identifying emerging issues (such as digital disruption) and events which may present themselves as opportunities. Horizon scanning has two main functions and two scanning types.

Horizon scan functions

Alerting function

This function highlights anticipated and emerging opportunities that will probably need attention

Creative function

This function is used to create innovative ideas or opportunities based on the analysis of data. The creative function may require further engagement of stakeholders and generate ideas and identify what is possible.

Refer to the tabs below to learn about the two types of horizon scan you can perform; exploratory and issue centred.

Exploratory scanning involves searching for information or developments with no specific framework or potential emerging issues or trends in mind. The aim is to identify an extensive list of potential issues and trends, within the broad boundaries of the policy domain selected (e.g., health, education, or the environment).

Exploratory scanning involves at least four key steps including:

1. Setting a high-level search profile that is only lightly focused using keywords.
2. Using various sources on information including blogs, reports, literature and even conference materials regarding the search profile
3. Assessment of issues and trends to determine the plausibility and strength of the research and data.
4. Grouping of issues and trends into themes.

Identify credible sources of information relevant to the policy domain in which your organisation operates (e.g., health). These resources may include statistical and report information from within your own agency. Ensure the whole team has central access to those resources for research and planning purposes.

Practitioners may end up with substantial amounts of data, research and information that can be clustered or grouped. It may therefore be necessary to tag data, and research as part of the scanning process.

Using a health-related example there may be trends in:

• Business—increased demand for services to the elderly due to increases in the aged population
• Industry—new developments in models of care outside of hospitals
• Society—increased interest of consumers in better managing their own healthcare.

The issues centred approach involves evaluating a hypothesis. A hypothesis may come from any of the four elements of disruption. It begins with a wide range of existing and potential emerging opportunities then seeks information to strengthen or disprove the hypothesis.

For example, a hypothesis related to transport might be that by the year X, Y% of cars and Z% of trucks on Australian roads will be driverless.

During issue centred horizon scanning, a frame of reference is conceptualised for chosen domains and may include articles or presentations by an author or group of authors that describe a future narrative.

There may be strong scientific articles, statistical analysis or trend report reports to support the analysis. Recommendations can be included as part of the narrative that describes how to address the opportunity and the reduce any negative impacts. Information highlighted in horizon scanning may also identify associated technology trends that will underpin realisation of a hypothesis or theme.

This information can be carried forward to as potential strategic drivers and environmental influences to be considered when determining objectives, strategies and roadmaps in later planning activities.

Refer to the Digital and technology trends for more information on scanning digital disruptors.

The external environment also needs to be scanned to identify business, industry and cultural factors and trends that may impact on the agency’s direction with respect to the workforce. The aim is to develop a good understanding of the key drivers that may affect the future supply and demand for labour for the agency.

Practitioners involved with workforce planning components should refer to the Workforce profile guideline for help assessing internal and external labour supply.

Horizon scanning may also help to provide a narrative for digital and or ICT strategy or plan regarding how customers and consumers access and use services and information, how the workforce will work, collaborate and engage as well as how information can be shared with service partners

There are two analytical methods recommended for conducting a horizon scan. These are:

• STEEP analysis, which considers the sociological, technological, economic environmental and political (STEEP) including demographic, cultural and legal factors
• Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis—a review and analysis of the organisation's internal and external strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Refer to the Vision guideline for more information regarding SWOT analysis.

Questions to explore

Consider the following key questions when as you review the organisation’s strategic direction and external environment’s impact on an organisation’s workforce.

• What are the organisation’s current and future business functions and activities?
• How might the future business, work functions and activities impact the agency’s workforce composition and competencies?
• What are the anticipated changes over the planning period?
• How is technology expected to change and how will these changes influence the type and number of jobs available and the skills and education needed to fill them?
• What are the sources of competition for attracting potential candidates (salary, work from home flexibility or benefit packages)?
• What is the impact of current or future changes in government or regulation (such as an election or new legislation requiring the use of renewable energy)?
• How is the economy performing both locally and nationally?
• What other trends may impact the agency (such as trends towards decentralisation, outsourcing or restructuring)?
• What does the day in the life of a patient, clinician, student, teacher or police officer look like in X years?
• How does a digital interface continue to change and evolve how we connect with other people as well as access and use information?

The results of environmental horizon scanning should be used as part of visioning activities with business representatives and can be incorporated into presentations conducted as part of planning workshops.Visioning is where the creative elements of environmental scanning come into play working with stakeholders, helping define what might be possible based on research.

It can also be helpful to present the results of environmental scanning as a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis.

Go to the Vision guideline to learn more about SWOT analysis and visioning activities.

Visit Digital and ICT best practice methodologies for more resources and information to help inform horizon scanning.