Many agencies use industry research partners as the primary method for recognising future digital or ICT capability trends. Industry partners are a valuable resource that can provide analysis around the predicted scale, reach and impact of technologies. This research is particularly useful when focusing on particular domains (e.g., robotics or wearable technologies).
Scanning for technology trends
Using hype cycles and technology trend reports are examples of exploratory scanning. In some cases, it may be possible to narrow the volume of information by narrowing the search according to the policy area of interest in your agency (e.g. health, education, transport, or the environment).
Refer to the Horizon scan guideline for more information on exploratory scanning and issues centred scanning.
Gartner recommends determining how different categories of disruptors address or affect the different elements of potential disruption. These are, business, technology, industry and society (Gartner Inc., 2017).
Example disruptor scenario
Statements such as, ‘by the year X people will have more conversations with a robot than with their spouse’ is an example of issues centred scanning. The practitioner would research the implications and probability of this occurring in the particular policy area of the agency and investigate how such technology or capability will or could shape future service delivery.
The table below highlights a possible response to the robotics and wearables scenario elements highlighted above.
| Disruptor | Element 1: Robotics | Element 2: Wearable technology |
|---|---|---|
| Business | Gradually more affordable for use in the home. | Affordable and accessible. |
| Technology | Emotionally intelligent. | Compact, comfortable, fashionable. |
| Industry | Configurable to suit many applications e.g. health, education, entertainment. | Multi-purpose, high-level of integration with other devices, high rates of continuous improvement and new product turnover. |
| Society | Trust, entertainment and companionship from humanoid devices. | Increased reliance on devices by the population to manage health, stay connected and be organised. |
- Last updated:
- 7 December 2022